تعیین زمان کاشت، پتانسیل عملکرد دانه، شکاف عملکرد و تجزیه خطر تولید گندم در مناطق دیم خوزستان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

دانشیار، بخش تحقیقات علوم زراعی و باغی، مرکز تحقیقات و آموزش کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان خوزستان، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، اهواز، ایران.

چکیده

استان خوزستان دارای سطح قابل‌توجهی گندم دیم است که به علت ناپایداری شرایط آب و هوایی و مدیریت نامطلوب میانگین عملکرد دانه آن کمتر از یک تن در هکتار است. به‌منظور پهنه‌بندی دیم‌زارهای استان خوزستان بر اساس زمان کاشت، پتانسیل عملکرد و شکاف عملکرد و تحلیل خطر تولید از مدل‌های AquaCrop و CERES-Wheat استفاده شد. داده‌های آب و هوایی شهرستان‌های دیم‌خیز بعد از داده‌گواری همراه با بافت خاک غالب هر منطقه، به مدل معرفی تا زمان کاشت و پتانسیل عملکرد دانه را برای هر منطقه شبیه‌سازی نماید. عملکردهای شبیه‌سازی شده برای مناطق توسط نرم‌افزار RAINBOW مورد آنالیز خطر قرار گرفتند. سپس همه نتایج به محیط سامانه اطلاعات جغرافیایی (GIS)، منتقل و پهنه‌بندی انجام شد. نتایج نشان داد که آغاز کاشت در مناطق دیم‌خیز مرکزی (شوشتر) و شمالی شرقی (ایذه) معمولاً زودتر از مناطق شمالی (دزفول) و جنوب شرقی (بهبهان) شروع می‌شود و یک تفاوت 15 روزه (اواخر آبان تا 15 آذر) بین آغاز کاشت گندم دیم در مناطق مختلف استان خوزستان وجود دارد. طول دوره رشد از مناطق مرکزی به سمت مناطق شمالی، شمال شرقی و جنوب شرقی افزایش می‌یابد. بیشترین طول دوره رشد گندم 164 روز (2190 درجه روز رشد) مربوط به ایذه در شمال شرقی استان و کمترین طول دوره رشد گندم 124 روز (1860 درجه روز رشد) مربوط به شهرستان شوشتر در مرکز استان است. نتایج نشان داد که میانگین پتانسیل عملکرد دانه از 2/4 تن در هکتار (ایذه) تا 7/1 تن در هکتار (شوشتر) متغیر بود. پتانسیل عملکرد دانه مناطق از جنوب به سمت شمال، شمال شرق و جنوب شرق دارای روند افزایشی بود و پتانسیل عملکرد دانه هر یک از پهنه‌ها در سال‌های مختلف نیز متفاوت بود. نتایج تجزیه خطر نشان داد که خطر تولید در پهنه‌های مختلف متفاوت بود و پهنه‌های با پتانسیل عملکرد دانه بالا دارای خطر تولید کمتر بودند. نتایج تجزیه شکاف عملکرد نیز نشان داد که شکاف عملکرد در پهنه‌های مختلف از 88 درصد (ایذه و بهبهان) تا 66 درصد (شوشتر و دزفول) متغیر بود. به‌طورکلی، تاریخ کاشت مناسب گندم دیم در خوزستان در دامنه تاریخ کاشت مناسب گندم آبی ۲۰ آبان لغایت ۲۵ آذر قرار می‌گیرد، اگرچه زمان کاشت گندم دیم در مقایسه با گندم آبی با ۱۰ روز تأخیر آغاز می‌شود. پهنه‌های دارای پتانسیل عملکرد دانه بیشتر دارای شکاف عملکرد بیشتری نیز هستند. برای کمّی‌سازی سهم هر یک از عوامل مؤثر در ایجاد شکاف عملکرد و به‌کارگیری راهکارهای مناسب مدیریت مزرعه برای کاهش شکاف عملکرد دانه پژوهش‌های تکمیلی برای ارزیابی مدل در شبیه‌سازی اثر آب، عناصر غذایی و علف‌های هرز ضرورت دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Determination of Sowing Time, Grain Yield Potential, Yield Gap, and Risk Analysis of Wheat Production in Rainfed Regions of Khuzestan Province in Iran

نویسنده [English]

  • S. B. Andarzian
Assistant Professor, Field and Horticultural Crops Sciences Research Department, Khuzestan . Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organigation, Ahvaz, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Khuzestan province has large areas of rainfed wheat where the average grain yield, due to annual variability in weather conditions and poor management, is less then one ton per hectare. To zoning rainfed wheat areas in Khuzestan based on planting time, yield potential and yield gap as well as production risk the AquaCrop and CERES-Wheat models were used. Long-term daily weather data of each region, after processing, and the dominant soil texture were arranged as models inputs to simulate planting time and yield potential for each region. Risk analysis was performed for models outputs using RAINBOW software. All results moved to Geographical Information System (GIS) for zoning. The results showed that the commencement of sowing time in central (Shushtar) and northeast (Izeh) regions starts 15 days earlier than north (Dezful) and southeast (Behbehan) regions. The longest cropping season with 164 days (2190 GDD) and shortest with 124 days (1860 GDD) belonged to northeast (Izeh) and central (Shushtar) regions, respectively. The results also showed that the average grain yield potential varied from 4.2 (Izeh) to 1.7 (Shushtar) tons per hectare. Average grain yield potential of south to north, northeast and southeast had an increasing trend and it was proportional to the amount of rainfall. The results of risk analysis revealed that production risk varied in different zones, and zones with higher yield potential have lower production risk. The results indicated that yield gap varied from 88% (Izeh and Behbahan) to 66% (Shushtar and Dezful). Areas with higher yield potential had more yield gaps. Overall, suitable sowing time window of wheat in rainfed areas of Khuzestan (from 11 November to 16 December) is the same as sowing time window for irrigated wheat. To quantify the contribution of each factor affecting the yield gap and recommendation of appropriate crop management practices to reduce the gap, further researches are required for evaluating the model for simulating the effects of water, fertilizers and weeds.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Wheat
  • zoning
  • rainfed
  • sowing time
  • crop management

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به زراعی نهال و بذر
دوره 35، شماره 2
آذر 1398
صفحه 159-181

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